The 2025 BNP Paribas Open is already full of some exciting matchups, including one between China’s Zhang (51st) and Poland’s Majchrzak (122nd). Not only could this matchup provide us with riveting tennis, but also, as both players can show, a big comeback. With these two athletes preparing for what could be a make-or-break match, tennis lovers and bettors alike are taking full stock of their chances. Here, we’ll run the rule over the match with detailed insight on the odds, betting, predictions, stats, and recent player form.
Player Overview: Zhang (51st) vs. Majchrzak (122nd)
Zhang: The Rising Star
Zhang is quickly emerging as one of the most exciting players on the ATP Tour. Ranked 51st in the world, Zhang has displayed real potential with his energetic baseline game and booming serve. A solid technical player with great fitness, he has always performed well against top-tier opponents.
Starting in 2025, Zhang has ridden a solid upwards curve, achieving big wins in ATP 250 and ATP 500 tournaments. He has a natural ability to play well in tight situations and a dangerous attacking game that thrives on hard courts like the kind used at the BNP Paribas Open.
2025 Season Stats:
- Wins: 22
- Losses: 12
- Important Wins: Tsitsipas, Auger-Aliassime, and Ruud
Strengths:
- Aggressive forehand
- Exceptional fitness and speed
- Strong serving game
- Resilience under pressure
Majchrzak: The Diamond in the Rough
At No. 122 in the ATP rankings, Majchrzak comes into this match as the underdog. After struggling for consistency in recent years, the Polish player has shown moments of magic. His two best attributes are the ability to take the initiative and hit aggressive tennis shots, and a decent serve-and-volley style game, which can unsettle opponents when done right.
Majchrzak’s ranking does not reflect his talent, but he has had some good moments, including an unexpected run into the third round of the 2024 French Open. His greatest difficulty has been sustaining his form over an entire tournament. Majchrzak will have to dig deep and pull out all the stops to beat a player like Zhang.
2025 Season Stats:
- Wins: 15
- Losses: 18
- Key Victories: Draper, Munar
Strengths:
- Serve-and-volley game
- Strong forehand when on form
- Plays with aggression on hard courts
Head-to-Head: Zhang and Majchrzak
Playing Styles and Key Matchup Factors
Zhang’s Strengths:
Zhang’s power game will most likely be the difference in this match. His penetrating forehand and ability to pin down opponents from the baseline should make it difficult for Majchrzak to find a rhythm. Zhang’s serve is also a big weapon because he can blast consistently high first serves that are difficult to return.
The speedy Zhang’s fitness and movement around the court add another layer of difficulty for opponents trying to break him down, particularly on the hard courts of Indian Wells, where stamina can be a key factor.
Majchrzak’s Strengths:
Majchrzak has the option to mix up his shots and generate pressure with a more traditional serve-and-volley game. His net game may present problems for Zhang, especially if he can vary the tempo and construct short points.
Majchrzak plays a more erratic style than Zhang, and on his good days, he can dominate matches with his capacity to push the ball deep and sprint to the net.
Previous Encounters
Zhang and Majchrzak have played each other only once, and Zhang won that match in straight sets in 2016. Still, Majchrzak will hope to give a better account of himself this time and take a more positive and aggressive approach to the match. With Zhang ahead in their head-to-head record, Majchrzak is sure to try and cause an upset.
Betting Odds and Expert Picks and Predictions
Betting Odds:
- Zhang: -275
- Majchrzak: +200
With Zhang’s higher ATP ranking and recent form, he is the heavy favorite going into this match. The odds relate to the improvements he has made over the last 12 months and his ability to play against the very best. Still, Majchrzak’s odds are still relatively good, given the unpredictability he can offer.
Expert Pick: Zhang in Straight Sets
Experts overwhelmingly favor Zhang in this matchup, with a forecasted scoreline of 6-3, 6-4. While Majchrzak is capable of dangerous work at his best, Zhang’s power and consistency make him the stronger threat in this spot. If Zhang can avoid errors and find his rhythm on serve, he should have no problem dictating from the baseline.
Majchrzak will need to be aggressive and take chances, but it is hard to picture him being able to maintain the level necessary to press Zhang for long.
Vital Elements in Zhang’s Triumph
1. Serve Consistency
Zhang has a powerhouse serve. If he can maintain a high first serve percentage and move the ball well off the return, he will promptly force Majchrzak into defense. Zhang’s capacity to vary his serve, both speedily and precisely, will be a key element to clinching a victory.
2. Aggressive Baseline Play
Zhang’s forehand is among the most powerful on the ATP Tour. Using his forehand to stretch out the court and make Majchrzak play on the back foot, Zhang can take control of rallies quickly. He is particularly dangerous on hard courts, where his ability to hit winners off both sides makes him an imposing player.
3. Mental Toughness
Zhang has proven himself tough under pressure in a number of high-profile matches. It is likely that, if the match becomes close, it will be his ability to keep his nerve and perform under pressure that will make the difference.
Majchrzak’s Victory: The Key Factors
1. Serve and Volley Strategy
Zhang’s rhythm can be disturbed by Majchrzak’s serve-and-volley game. If Majchrzak can push Zhang behind the baseline and achieve shorter rallies, he’ll be in position to get to the net and pressure Zhang’s passing shots.
2. Taking Risks Early
Majchrzak will have to be aggressive early in the match, particularly with his groundstrokes. If he can take control of the tempo and pull out of the gates early in the first couple of games, he might have a chance to make this one competitive.
3. Mental Fortitude
This match will test Majchrzak’s ability to bounce back from adversity. For him to stand a chance of winning, he needs to remain settled and not let any early losses get to him.
Conclusion: Zhang the Way to Go, But Majchrzak Offers Upset Possibilities
With the 2025 BNP Paribas Open near, Zhang is still the winner against Majchrzak. He has an obvious advantage — his solid approach play is supplemented by his ability to stay so consistent. Yet, while never to be written off, Majchrzak has the talent and know-how to test any player in form and should be capable of an upset.
Predicted winner: Zhang in straight sets (6-3, 6-4)
FAQs
1. What might the odds be of Zhang winning the BNP Paribas Open in 2025?
All signs point to Zhang going the distance in this tournament. If he can keep playing the way he has, he may challenge among the best in the further rounds.
2. Have Zhang and Majchrzak played each other before?
Yes, Zhang and Majchrzak have played each other once before, with Zhang pulling off the straight sets victory in their prior meeting.
3. What surface is the BNP Paribas Open played on?
The BNP Paribas Open is played on hard courts, which generally benefit hard-hitting baseline players with big serves.
4. What is Majchrzak’s biggest advantage over Zhang?
Majchrzak’s serve-and-volley game gives him his biggest advantage. If he can pull off this strategy efficiently, he could throw Zhang’s rhythm out of whack, wresting the pace of the match from his hands.
5. How has Zhang been doing in 2025?
He had a solid 2025 season so far, including crucial victories over top-10 players and solid runs in ATP 500 and ATP 250 tournaments. His recent form, too, is great, making him a tough second-round opponent to face ahead of the BNP Paribas Open.
