The Mexico-U.S. border, a sight once familiar as migrant caravans sought a better life on the other side of the U.S. border, has dwindled significantly since 2020. What’s behind this sudden drop-off? Is it a harbinger of changing immigration patterns or just a momentary dip? The decline, which experts attribute to a combination of tightening border enforcement, political shifts, and global factors that are reshaping migration dynamics, comes as the numbers of both migrants and asylum seekers have fallen to levels not seen since the 1980s.
A Once-Busy Launchpad for Migrants: What’s Different?
The U.S. southern border has long been the entry point for migrants heading north to seek a better life. For years, there were thousands of migrants in the region, mostly from Central America, but also from places like Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Haiti. Clogged shelters, ad hoc camps, and long lines for asylum hearings became a common sight.
But in recent months, that once-busy stream of migrants has dramatically slowed. What accounts for this sudden change? And what is the impact for both the migrant population and the countries that they transit, particularly Mexico and the U.S.?
Reasons Behind the Decrease in Migrant Numbers
More Effective Border Enforcement and United States’ Immigration Policy
The main reason for the drop in migrant arrivals: the tightening of immigration policies at the U.S. and Mexican borders. The Biden administration, which has rolled back some of the more controversial policies of the Trump era, has nonetheless continued to enforce strict border controls. The use of Title 42, for example, is still a powerful deterrent. Under this policy, would-be migrants can be quickly expelled on public health grounds, making the prospect of crossing less appealing.
The U.S. has also been working to improve border technology, in addition to building up surveillance and personnel along its southern borders. These steps are absolutely working in terms of preventing illegal crossings. This is leading fewer migrants to try to enter the U.S., as many expect rapid deportation or detention.
Key Statistics:
- Migrant encounters dipped by nearly 40% compared to the previous year, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP).
- The use of Title 42 and the continuation of expulsions at the border under the Biden administration had reduced the arrival of migrants at the U.S. border with Mexico significantly.
Mexico’s Role in Border Control and Immigration Enforcement
Mexico itself has played an important role in reducing migration flows. The Mexican government has also increasingly turned more toward tightening security and controlling migration through its southern borders. In the era of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico committed to sending thousands of National Guard troops to help thwart irregular migration.
Mexico has also stepped up its own immigration enforcement, frequently mandating that migrants remain in southern states like Tapachula for processing before being permitted to travel north. This has created a chokepoint and discouraged many from continuing on their way. The country’s cooperation with the U.S. on immigration enforcement has also resulted in new hurdles for people trying to reach the U.S..
Impact on Migrants:
- Tough new security and bureaucratic hurdles have slowed migrants’ progress, leaving many stranded in Mexico.
- Smuggling networks, which once flourished by helping migrants cross borders, are now operating in a much more complex environment that has left migrants with fewer opportunities to skirt around border controls.
Internal Economic and Political Challenges in Migrants’ Home Countries
The novel acceleration of migrants heading from different countries, including many Central American countries, is due to the economic and political crises that originate in those countries. Regions that continue to be plagued by economic instability, high inflation rates, and internal violence, like Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador, have seen little headway in combating the root causes of migration: extreme poverty, gang violence, and limited pathways to social mobility.
Although they have inspired people to migrate over the generations, mounting obstacles in traveling and the increased cost of migration has led some to regret the decision to leave. Many would rather remain in their home countries and weather difficult conditions than risk the treacherous journey north.
Economic Factors:
- The cost of migration has skyrocketed in recent years, and migrants are more often left with no choice but to pay tens of thousands — in some cases — to smugglers and endure lengthy uncertainty waiting for asylum processing.
- The enduring consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy have compounded pressures throughout Central America, leaving families struggling to save enough money for the trek to Mexico.
Migration Trends and Climate Change: What We Need to Know
Climate change, on top of political and economic instability, has emerged as a major driver of migration. Central America is highly susceptible to the consequences of climate change, such as extreme weather events, extended droughts, and crop failures. Environmental factors have destroyed livelihoods, particularly in countries such as Honduras and Guatemala.
Although environmental stressors persist in causing migration, shifting global trends indicate many are now no longer seeking the U.S. They are either moving within their own countries due to conflict or fleeing to nearby Latin American countries like Mexico or Colombia.
Climate Displacement:
- More than 1.5 million people have been displaced from their homes in Central America due to climate-related disasters in 2023 alone, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC).
- As crop failures and extreme weather events become more common, people are opting to migrate to urban centers in their countries or even temporarily seek asylum in neighboring states more often than risk the treacherous passage to the U.S..
Changing Migration Paths: A New Attention to Mexico and More
With fewer migrants trying to enter the U.S., new migration routes are taking shape. What once was a passage to the U.S. is now turning into a destination itself: Mexico. As migration within the region grows, Mexico has also seen an influx of asylum-seekers from countries like Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua.
This change in migration patterns is causing Mexico to re-evaluate its immigration policies. Asylum applications are surging, and Mexico has more migrants who have settled in its territory rather than attempt the treacherous trip to the U.S. And in response, the Mexican government has been working to integrate more migrants into its economy — granting work permits and other forms of legal protection.
Mexico’s New Role:
- In 2024, Mexico’s National Institute of Migration (INM) recorded a 25% increase in asylum claims compared to the previous year.
- New policies have been recently put in place to help migrants adjust to Mexican society, access work programs, and gain residency.
On-the-Ground Impact: Case Studies of Individual Migrants
Case Study 1: Stranded in Tapachula
In the Mexican border city of Tapachula, a once-vibrant migrant community has dwindled to a mere fraction of its size. Several families are enduring the bureaucracy — a painful change from their previous location in Tapachula, from where they had aspired to walk to the U.S. Some are choosing to go back home. Others are trying to make their way to countries elsewhere in Latin America.
Case Study 2: Migrants Applying for Asylum in Mexico City
Unlike in the declining numbers at the U.S.-Mexico border, Mexico City has become the new hotspot for asylum seekers. Some migrants from nations like Venezuela and Haiti are opting to remain in Mexico, where they can secure employment and temporary sanctuary. The city’s relatively strong economy, plus new government policies designed to ease the integration of migrants, have made it an enticing option.
What Lies Ahead for Mexico’s Border and Migration Trends?
The drop in migrants arriving at Mexico’s southern border marks a new chapter in the history of migration. However, is that a one-time decline or part of a more profound ongoing trend?
Possible Future Trends:
- Decreasing Migration to the U.S.: With U.S. border enforcement becoming increasingly restrictive, and Mexico’s internal policies increasingly discouraging internal migration, the influx of migrants to the U.S. may continue to dwindle for several years.
- Changing Directions of Migration: If conditions in Central America and other parts of Latin America fail to improve, migrants may start seeking solace in other nearby countries, such as Colombia, Costa Rica, or Mexico itself.
- Growth in Migrants in Mexico: As more migrants remain in Mexico instead of risking the trek to the U.S., the country will encounter new challenges related to economic integration, access to medical services, and other social services.
Conclusion: A Border in Suspense and a Complicated Future
The drop in the number of migrants arriving at Mexico’s border isn’t just a byproduct of tougher border policies, but also of changing migration patterns driven by global economic forces, climate change, and political transitions. Though fewer migrants might be crossing into the U.S. right now, the larger questions around migration and refugee protection have not been resolved.
Mexico’s shifting status as both a transit country and an endpoint for migrants is an indicator that migration trends are changing in unexpected ways. This has paved the way for an even more complicated migration scene in the region in the coming years as both governments and international organizations adjust to these new realities.
FAQs
- Why are so many fewer migrants showing up at the U.S.-Mexico border? Stricter rules in the United States and Mexico, plus rising costs and dangers of migration, have sharply diminished migrant numbers. Many people are deciding to remain in their native countries or relocate within Latin America.
- **What role does Mexico play
